In the memo, seen by AppleInsider, Needham’s Laura Martin noted that an earlier casual gaming hit — Candy Crush — generated over $10 billion per year in its peak years, 2013 and 2014. Pokémon Go, however, already has 10 times the number of players, and Apple gets to retain a 30 percent cut of any revenues generated from the iOS App Store, though the game is also available for Android.
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The game is currently thought to be reaching 21 million people in the U.S., or about 6 percent of the country’s population. Assuming global penetration peaks at 20 percent in the markets where Go is available — and Apple pulls in 5 cents per person, per day — the company could theoretically take in an extra $3 billion in revenue in the next 12 to 24 months.
That might boost the company’s market cap by as much as $5.5 billion, or $1 per share, Martin added, also pointing out that Apple’s short-term cash flow from Pokemon Go is expected to be higher than Nintendo’s, which only owns 33 percent of the Pokémon Company along with a 30 percent stake in the game’s developer, Niantic.
Apple shares have risen slightly in Wednesday trading, sitting just over $100. For most of the past three months, shares have typically sold under that threshold, bottoming out near $90 in May.
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